Idol Meter: Does Haley have a shot?

By Ken Barnes, Special for USA TODAY

After James Durbin regrettably joined Chris Daughtry in the Idol Rockers Who Missed the Top 3 club, we're left with two country singers and one enigma. A lot of conflicting factors make the race tough to call, but let's evaluate the chances of this unlikely trio.

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  By Michael Becker,, Fox

  Haley Reinhart could make the finals if voters don't want to see two country singers.

By Michael Becker,, Fox

Haley Reinhart could make the finals if voters don't want to see two country singers.

The ultimate dark horse: Haley Reinhart (21)

Haley's new pattern of a disastrous first song and triumphant follow-up has worked out wondrously well, and she can't be counted out. In her favor: the unprecedented prospect of two country singers in the finals, which may be one too many for the American public. Working against her: the almost-unprecedented prospect of two girls in the finals, which would mean the defeat of the immensely popular Scotty. Best case: Haley pulls out another well-timed showstopper, blows by Lauren and pouts past Scotty in an unpredictable final.

The fader: Lauren Alaina (45)

Only in Season 3 did two girls reach the finals. Lauren has been uneven lately (her attempt to play "bad girl" had all the menace of Winnie the Pooh trying to knock over a beehive), and Haley seems to have more momentum now. And if voters reject the idea of two country singers in the finals, it's hard to see them giving Lauren the nod over Scotty. Best case: Lauren rallies to beat Haley this week, then it's a more even contest with Scotty next week.

Last guy standing: Scotty McCreery (40)

Scotty has breezed through the competition, but the departure of James has to worry him. In a season that seemed destined to crown a man, he finds himself outnumbered by women. That could work to his advantage: Guys have grabbed 11 of the previous 18 final two slots, and male-oriented voters have nowhere else to turn. Best case: Scotty plays to his strengths, then beats the surviving girl; he's got more country appeal than Lauren and is certainly a stronger singer than Haley.

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